The announced reimposition of sanctions against Iran by the Trump administration creates an unnecessary extra uncertainty into a market which is under extreme pressure already, as explained by BIMCO’s Chief Analyst, Peter Sand.
The tanker market has been faced with severe headwinds amid tonnage overcapacity coupled with weak trading demand and weak OPEC output. Overordering of very large crude carriers (VLCC) since the beginning of this year has put additional strain on the market, with a total of 24 VLCCsbooked so far this year.
“Adding sanctions on top of a bad market normally doesn’t bring around much good to an industry,” Sand told World Maritime News commenting on the U.S. decision to pull back from JCPOA.
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO), and National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) will be directly impacted by the sanctions together with the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), South Shipping Line Iran, or their affiliates.
Iranian energy and financial sectors are also being targeted by the sanctions.
“For an international tanker company, being unable to trade in the US – that’s a big issue,” Sand said.
The new wave of sanctions could prompt European buyers to refrain from buying Iranian crude, resulting in the country’s export cuts. However, exports to China, India, Korea and Japan are likely to be resumed, as they did when previous sanctions were in place.
“On the commercial side, we may see Iranian exports cut, as European buyers shy away. Basically a reversal of what has happened this the JCPOA came into force,” Sand said.
“Essentially, no one wants to be in breach of any sanctions, so as long as uncertainty around sanctions that may or may not be ‘snapped back’ exist, owners and operators prefer to stay on safe ground – i.e. avoiding doing business with Iran – if that would prevent them from doing tanker business with the US.”
正如BIMCO首席分析師彼得桑德所解釋，Trump政府宣布對伊朗實施制裁的舉動給已經承受巨大壓力的市場帶來了不必要的額外不確定性。
由於噸位產能過剩，加上 交易需求疲軟，OPEC產量疲弱，油輪市場面臨嚴峻的阻力。自今年年初以來，超大型原油運輸船（VLCC）的過度運行給市場帶來了更大的壓力，今年迄今為止共預定了24艘VLCC。
“在惡劣市場之上加上製裁通常不會給一個行業帶來好處， ”Sand告訴世界海事新聞評論美國退出JCPOA的決定。
伊朗國家石油公司（NIOC），Naftiran Intertrade Company（NICO）和伊朗國家油輪公司（NITC）將與伊朗伊斯蘭共和國航運公司（IRISL），伊朗南航運公司或其伊朗伊斯蘭共和國航運公司分支機構。
伊朗能源和金融部門也成為製裁的目標。
“對於一家國際油輪公司來說，無法在美國進行貿易 - 這是一個大問題，” Sand說。
新的製裁可能會促使歐洲買家不採購伊朗原油，導致該國出口削減。但是，對中國，印度，韓國和日本的出口很可能會像以前的製裁一樣繼續。
“在商業方面，隨著歐洲買家迴避，我們可能會看到伊朗的出口減少。基本上，JCPOA生效後發生的情況發生了逆轉，“ Sand說。
“從本質上講，沒有人希望違反任何制裁，只要製裁的不確定性可能會或可能不會”反彈“，業主和經營者寧願保持安全的立場 - 即避免與伊朗做生意 - 如果這會阻止他們與美國進行油輪生意。“
Image Courtesy: Mehr News / Imformation Source: World Maritime News Staff
